New Delhi: Wholesale inflation turned negative for the second time in three months as fall in petroleum and food prices dragged it to a five-and-a-half year low of minus 0.39% in January, raising hopes of a rate cut by RBI. Â Â
Reflecting significant improvement in the price situation, the inflation for the second time in three months remained in the negative territory in January. Â Â
Inflation measured on wholesale price index (WPI) was at 0.11% in December. The data for November was revised downwards to a negative minus 0.17%, from the provisional estimate of zero. Â Â
Although the prices of certain protein rich items, and wheat declined during the month, the overall food inflation was at a six month high of 8%, as per the government data released on Monday. The last time the inflation had touched this low level was in June 2009 when it was at minus 0.4%.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had on January 15 cut interest rates ahead of the scheduled monetary policy review and it is expected that he might announce another cut after the Budget in wake of significant improvement in the inflation situation. The next review is due on April 7.
Inflation in ‘fuel and power segment’ was negative at minus 10.69% in January, while in manufactured products it was at 1.05%. The contraction in WPI inflation for petrol was steeper at 17.08% in January from 11.96% in December.
Similarly the rate of decline in diesel prices last month was higher than in the previous month.
“Given the continuing trend of moderate inflation both at the wholesale and retail level and the fact that a durable recovery in the industrial sector is out of sight, we hope that the central bank would continue with the policy rate cut cycle after the forthcoming budget,” FICCI President Jyotsna Suri said.
Data showed that inflation in pulses, vegetables and Data showed that inflation in pulses, vegetables and cereals was higher in January over the previous month.
On the other hand, the rate of price rise in potato, milk, rice and protein rich items like egg, meat and fish was slower in the month under review. The inflation in the primary articles segment inched up to 3.27% in January, as against 2.17% in December.
Commenting on the numbers, PHD Chamber said a significant rate cut by the RBI becomes inevitable to boost the demand scenario vis-a-vis easy availability of credit to the various consumers and producers’ segments.
“We expect at least 1% cut in the repo rate before entering the new financial year 2015-16,†it said.
Rajan, in the monetary policy review earlier this month, kept key interest rate unchanged saying the apex bank wanted more comfort on inflation front as it awaited cues from Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s first full year Budget.
Rajan said retail inflation was likely to be around the target level of 6% by January 2016 but flagged monsoon and oil prices as upside risks.
As per data, retail inflation moved up to 5.11% in January month-on-month, measured on a new base year 2012, mainly due to dearer food items including fruits and vegetables.
ICRA Senior Economist Aditi Nayar said lower commodity prices dampened inflation in minerals, fuels as well as various commodity-intensive manufactured products.
“We do not expect this reading to significantly influence the timing or extent of subsequent repo rate cuts, given that CPI inflation is the nominal anchor,” she said.