By-elections in 4 states to test the mood swing

New Delhi: In the first big test since the general elections, Bihar voted for the by-election being held in the state. The early morning voting was slow, but picked up the pace once the day progressed. As many as 42.27% voting was recorded in the state till 4pm.

By-elections were also held for three other states – Karnataka (3), Madhya Pradesh (3) and Punjab (2). The ruling BJP hopes to extend its gains from the Lok Sabha elections.

In Bihar, the new alliance of Nitish’s Janata Dal United and Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal will signal the mood of the electorate for the Assembly elections next year. They have come together after over 20 years of bitter political feuding to contest four seats each. Congress, playing junior partner, is contesting two. 

The new alliance now hopes to consolidate the Muslim, Yadav and backward caste votes. It will be tested in assembly seats like Hajipur, which was won in 2010 by Nityanand Rai of BJP, then a partner of JD(U). Rai, a Yadav leader had taken away a chunk of Lalu Yadav’s votes.

Nitish and Lalu’s strategy is not just to woo the Muslims. They also plan to play the caste card to try and vanquish BJP in the state. “Mandal train has started. Those willing to board are welcome while those not interested will miss it,” Lalu had told PTI recently. ‘Mandal’ symbolised political changes in early ’90s in Bihar in the wake of implementation of Mandal commission recommendations which provided reservations for OBCs in jobs. This move helped Lalu’s RJD rule in Bihar for 15 years.

Thriving upon anti-Lalu sentiment, Nitish Kumar ruled the state and certainly has done a lot of development works in the state, taking it to all-new level. But 9 years down the line, Bihar is witnessing a major paradigm shift in political dynamics. That the political situation is same will be the biggest mistakes for the parties – which have very smartly been able to milk the caste equations for years!

The Youth is ambitious and hopes for better education and job opportunities. They are very much open to break the traditional family barriers of voting for the candidate of their caste. Hence it makes it all the difficult for the parties to dig in to the youth vote bank. While Nitish in his 9 years of rule has pretty much succeeded in improving the educational facilities of the state, Lalu indeed has a dent on that front.

Even Congress which is praising Lalu now had once termed RJD’s 15-year-rule in Bihar as “dark ages”. Lalu regime was considered as one of the worst in the political history of Bihar. Crime graph in the state was at its peak and also there were number of corruption allegations against Lalu and his kin where he was alleged to be involved in several cases of nepotism.

While the old friends soar high on the decision of going it together in the By-polls, BJP, however, termed this alliance nothing but political opportunism and claimed that the party will give its opponents run for their money after it decimated them in recently concluded Lok Sabha polls. 

Ever since the speculations over JD(U)-RJD alliance gained momentum , Bihar has seen a surge in crime graph. Several fear that the nexus between the two parties would further push crime graph in State and bring back the ‘jungle raj’ that the state witnessed during Lalu’s rule in Nineties.

It would be interesting to see whether this political realignment by JD(U)-RJD and Congress will send positive signals to people of Bihar. But chances of a better fortune for both JD(U) and RJD look grim as the former is facing a credibility crisis and its association with the RJD will further dent its image.

Two of the three seats up for grabs in Karnataka were held by BJP prodigals B S Yeddyurappa and B Sriramulu, who have since become members of Parliament. The third was held by the ruling Congress, which has a point to prove after being able to win only nine of 28 Lok Sabha seats in May this year. BJP credits its haul of 17 in the general elections to a Modi wave and hopes that will continue. 

In Madhya Pradesh, chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan of BJP would not be losing much sleep over today’s by-elections to three assembly seats. His wins in state elections and the national elections, both held within the last one year have been mammoth-sized. 

The counting is scheduled to be on August 25.