Rahul Gandhi may have embarked on a 3500 km yatra to remould his image as a mass-contact leader and rejuvenate the Congress.
Several Opposition leaders may be calling for a unity of all political parties against the BJP.
But the big question is who will emerge as the principal challenger to Prime Minister Narendra Modi?
No doubt, there are too many claimants for that role.
Everyone in the anti-Modi camp thinks that the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 could deny the BJP a chance to form the government for a third time with a comfortable majority — because of several issues like unemployment.
Therefore, they must hurry up to sew up alliances and seat agreements before the BJP strikes back at them with a smarter smash-and-grab strategy.
However, things are far from being rosy for the Opposition.
Apart from Rahul Gandhi, other aspirants who think they may emerge as the principal pole against Modi include NCP leader Sharad Pawar, Telangana Chief Minister and TRS supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao, who has announced that he will launch a national party soon, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal.
The latest entrant on the scene is, of course, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar who snapped ties with the BJP in a shock-and-awe move. He tied up with his rival, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, and formed a coalition, which included the Congress and the Left too.
So far what we have witnessed is that the challengers are confabulating among themselves for a strategy to counter the Modi-led BJP.
But the unity in real terms among their parties remains very elusive even though the parliamentary polls are only two years away.
Many regional party leaders like Pawar, Mamata, KCR and Kejriwal want to force the Congress to abdicate its claim to the leadership of the Opposition because it is very weak in many states though it claims a pan-Indian presence.
On the other hand, the Congress is in no mood to give up its right to lead the opposition, pointing to the fact that, without the Congress, none of the regional leaders can hope to get the required parliamentary arithmetic of 272 plus seats to oust the BJP from power. The Lok Sabha has 543 elected seats. The halfway mark is 272.
A strong Congress is an important pillar of Opposition unity and its allies should understand that the party will not allow itself to be weakened, declared Congress communication chief Jairam Ramesh. Though he didn’t name anyone, his comment came a day after Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav remarked that the Congress should allow regional parties to be in the “driving seat.”
Loyalists of Rahul Gandhi believe that his Bharat Jodo Yatra has awakened the Congress rank and file across the country to pose a big challenge– though many Congress insiders are sceptical about the purpose that will be served. They point to Rahul Gandhi spending more time in the southern states and avoiding the Hindi heartland, which is where the real problems for Congress lie during the elections.
But one thing is clear: regional leaders like Sharad Pawar, Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee are not enthused by Rahul Gandhi’s plans for an assertive Congress.
In his tour of Gujarat, Arvind Kejriwal even lashed out as much at the Congress, ridiculing its claim of being an alternative to the BJP. “I have heard that after PM Modi, Sonia Gandhi would be the next candidate for the BJP for the prime minister’s post.”
Certainly, there is fresh denial by other Opposition players about the importance of the Congress in the run-up to the parliamentary polls of 2024.
As Sharad Pawar’s National Congress Party (NCP) held its eighth national convention, NCP’s national general secretary Praful Patel and Kerala state president P C Chacko declared that Sharad Pawar is the only person who can get all the Opposition parties together despite differences. “KCR, Stalin, Mamata Banerjee, Sitaram Yechury, Om Prakash Chautala and Congress leaders come to Sharad Pawar because they want one person to unite us all and give us a vision,” said Patel.
Last week, as a new player in the arena, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar met with all Opposition leaders for several hours in New Delhi. He had a long meeting with Rahul Gandhi and had dinner with Arvind Kejriwal. Nitish also met with convicted leader Om Prakash Chautala.
On the final day of his visit, he had a lengthy conversation with Pawar. Nitish had previously met with Telangana CM K Chandrashekar Rao in Patna.
Nitish’s meeting with Rahul Gandhi was seen as a very significant move for the simple reason that the Bihar CM could be among the most acceptable faces among the regional leaders for the Congress to lead in case Rahul Gandhi does not want to lead it.
Rahul’s support for Nitish’s efforts against the BJP can bolster the chances of the opposition parties coming together even if the issue of who will be the Prime Minister candidate against Modi is very elusive.
Rahul’s backing for Nitish could mean that Nitish has had a head start compared to other ambitious Opposition leaders in steering a political arrangement, which could offer a choice to voters. To date, Rahul Gandhi has not been impressed with any opposition leader– be it Mamata Banerjee, Tejashwai Yadav, Sharad Pawar, K Chandrasekhar Rao, H D Kumaraswamy, M K Stalin, and Uddhav Thackeray.
Rahul’s experiences with Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati too turned bitter after alliances with their parties failed to bring electoral dividends for them or the Congress. Rahul has said so many times that he is not so keen about being projected as a PM candidate as he is about finding a route to end the BJP’s decade-long rule.
Nitish too does not claim that he is PM material for the opposition– though everyone knows that his decision to dump the BJP in Bihar two years before the Lok Sabha polls has a lot to do with his ambition.
It is said that Sonia Gandhi had suggested way back in 2016 to Mamata Banerjee that all opposition parties must agree on putting up one common candidate against the BJP or the NDA in each of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. That would ensure a “sure” defeat of BJP candidates as a majority of them only win with less than 30-40 per cent votes. But Mamata had wanted Sonia to agree that the Congress would not insist on the leadership of the arrangement against the BJP and let the regional satraps play their role. Sonia did not mince words in conveying to Mamata that the Opposition parties could not think of an alternative to the BJP rule at the centre without the Congress.
Now, Nitish appears to have taken a cue from Sonia’s old formula. Every opposition party that is serious about ousting Modi from power must make sacrifices wherever necessary. But getting all parties to agree on a common candidate against the BJP in each and all of the 543 seats is easier said than done.
(The author is a senior journalist and a well-known political commentator)