New Delhi: As war clouds loom large in the background amidst the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, India has strongly favoured dialogue and called for restraint from all sides to defuse the situation.
Russia’s amassing of troops on border areas along Ukraine has led to wide speculations that an invasion by Russia is imminent and the tense situation has kept the whole world on tenterhooks.
The crucial question is how India will be impacted in the event of a Russia-Ukraine war? For the past week, the international price of crude has crossed the 90 dollar mark and in the event of a war, the prices will most certainly go up. Russia has a share of 13 per cent in the overall crude production which is about half of what OPEC countries produce. Western Europe largely depends on Russia for its energy supply in the form of natural gas. If the gas supply gets affected, it may well push up the prices which will surely not be good news for India and it will also result in spiralling prices world- wide.
As India and Russia have robust defence ties and India has a number of Russian platforms in its military and depends on Russia for the supply, India will have a tough time finding a replacement if the war breaks out.
According to Tanvi Madan, analyst and a senior fellow with Brookings Institute, one of the primary concerns if there is a Russian military attack on Ukraine will be ensuring the safety of Indian citizens in Ukraine whose number is close to 20,000. India has already started the evacuation process with the first Air India flight having landed in Ukraine.
She said that India must also be thinking about and hopefully planning for the likely fallout of any Russian attack on Ukraine which includes outreach from various countries involved, energy price impact, additional sanctions and impact on China, Russia-China ties.
Will it be easy for India to remain neutral in such a situation considering the fact that India enjoys deep, comprehensive strategic relations with both – Russia and the U.S. and New Delhi’s diplomatic balancing act will remain in focus. India will also not be willing to publicly criticise or caution Russia against invading Ukraine which puts India in a rather tight spot.
India has so far batted for dialogue and diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis which had earlier been appreciated by Russia. India will have to maintain this delicate balance while pointing out that the world, already hit badly by the Corona pandemic, cannot afford a military conflict. India has time and again stressed that the issue can only be resolved through diplomatic dialogue.