New Delhi: The prosperous north-western border state of Punjab will go to polls on February 20 to elect a new 117-member assembly with a keen electoral battle on the cards. Major players in the fray are the ruling Congress party and those making a bid to grab power –the Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kerjiwal, former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress in alliance with the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).
Though Punjab looks as a homogenous land of farmers and Sikhs, in elections the state presents three distinct pictures of its regions — Malwa, Majha and Doaba. Malwa, the most dominant, and the lesser one Majha sandwiches Doaba between two of them. Each region is politically and culturally diverse also. Punjab denotes two words – Punj meaning five and Aab meaning water and thus making the state the land of five rivers which are Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum. In today’s Punjab only Sutlej, Ravi and Beas rivers flow, the other two being in Punjab situated in Pakistan.
Malwa region has 69 of 117 assembly seats in Punjab, followed by 25 in Majha and 23 seats in Doaba.
In the last assembly elections of 2017, the Congress had practically swept Malwa region with 40 seats and also bagged 22 of the 25 seats in Majha and 15 out of 23 in Doaba. The new kid on the bloc, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) put up a spirited performance and bagged 18 seats coming second to the Congress.
Traditionally, Punjab has witnessed a direct contest between the Congress and the SAD-BJP combine but the entry of AAP turned the electoral tussle into a triangular one in 2017. This time around, the Congress had to put up with the resignation of Captain Amarinder Singh who broke away from the party and the ruling party suffered another setback in the form of a rebellion by Navjot Singh Sidhu, former cricketer. The party installed Charanjit Singh Channi as chief minister, making him the first Dalit chief minister of Punjab.
Over the past one year the dynamics of politics in Punjab have changed with the farmers – mainly from Punjab and Haryana – putting up a stiff resistance to the three controversial farm laws and leading the protest at bordering areas on the outskirts of Delhi till the Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced cancellation of the three laws.
As Punjab gears up to vote on February 20 in assembly elections, it is abundantly clear that the 2022 fight will witness a multi-cornered tussle and the three regions, true to their tradition of diverse cultural values, are likely to come up with different political preferences. As Malwa was the focus of the farmers’ agitation, their issue is most likely to reverberate in the elections. Farmers’ protest prompted setting up a party of their unions — the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha (SSM) under farmer leader Balbir Singh Rajewal.
Majha region, literally meaning lying in the middle, is home to the Golden Temple of Amritsar and the Kartarpur Corridor that connects Punjab to Gurdwara Darbar Sahib in Pakistan. However, after the partition in 1947 which also divided Punjab as a state between India and Pakistan, Majha became a frontier region and thus acquired the tag of being hyper-sensitive owing to security concerns.
Sandwiched between Malwa and Majha is Doaba, the land between two rivers. This region is agriculturally prosperious and dominated by Dalit voters who form nea per cent of the electorate in the state. Followers of Sant Ravidas dominate the Doaba region who have their headquarters in Jalanadhar. Several other sects and deras also exist in the region.
The presence of chief minister Channi has made the voting interesting in Doaba region.
While AAP has declared Bhagwant Mann, MP, its chief ministerial candidate, other aspirants are Captain Amarinder Singh and Balbir Singh Rajewal. The Congress is yet to declare its chief ministerial face as the party leader Rahul Gandhi who visited the Golden Temple along with Sidhu and Channi said the party would soon reveal its choice. The Congress appears to be torn between the two – Channi who hopes to get the bulk of Dalit voters on his side and Sidhu who is banking upon his charisma and appeal with the young and educated voters.
Bhagwant Mann is pinning his aspirations on the performance of AAP’s Delhi government and by showcasing the Delhi Model which has done well on education, health and infrastructure fronts. Captain Amarinder Singh has tied up with the BJP and with former Union minister Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa’s SAD (Sanjyukt).
As things stand today, Amritsar (East) assembly seat is all set for the big fight between Bikram Singh Majithia of Shiromani Akali Dal and Punjab Congress President Navjot Singh Sidhu. Majithia is brother-in-law of SAD President Sukhbir Singh Badal and is facing the heat of probe in a case under NDPS Act. Former chief minister and SAD patron Parkash Singh Badal is all set to contest from his traditional constituency Lambi. At 94, the senior Badal will be the oldest person to contest assembly elections.
Sukhbir Singh Badal said: “Navjot Sidhu’s arrogance will be his undoing. He should get ready to fight the brave SAD workers. We will break his arrogance by ensuring he loses his security deposit.”
In the last assembly elections, Sidhu had won Amritsar (East) by a margin of 42,661 votes.