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NewsMobile Explainer: As Positivity Rate Doubles In Just 12 Days, Why Are Next 3 Weeks So Critical In Our COVID-19 Fight?

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India’s daily positivity rate is jumping by leaps and bounds every single day. The daily positivity rate doubled from 8 per cent to 16.7 per cent in just 12 days. The positivity rate in Delhi has now touched the staggering 30% mark.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his last meeting with Chief Ministers urged the states to ‘track, test and treat’ to bring the positivity rate to below 5 per cent.

Keeping the spike in the positivity rate in mind, experts say the next three weeks will be critical in our fight against COVID-19.

ALSO READ: NewsMobile Explainer: Is India’s Second COVID-19 Wave More Severe Than The First?

What is Positivity Rate? 

The percent positive or the positivity rate is the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that are actually positive, or: (positive tests)/(total tests) x 100%.

Experts at the John’s Hopkins School of Public Health say the positivity rate helps public health officials answer questions such as:

  • What is the current level of coronavirus transmission in the community?
  • Are we doing enough testing for the amount of people who are getting infected?

“The percent positive will be high if the number of positive tests is too high, or if the number of total tests is too low. A higher percent positive suggests higher transmission and that there are likely more people with coronavirus in the community who haven’t been tested yet,” John’s Hopkins Epidemiology Department faculty David Dowdy and Gypsyamber D’Souza explain in their study.

The percent positive, they say, “is a critical measure because it gives us an indication how widespread infection is in the area where the testing is occurring—and whether levels of testing are keeping up with levels of disease transmission.”

What Does A High Percent Positive Mean?

A high positivity rate means that more testing should probably be done—and it suggests that it is not a good time to relax restrictions aimed at reducing coronavirus transmission.

“Because a high percentage of positive tests suggests high coronavirus infection rates (due to high transmission in the community), a high percent positive can indicate it may be a good time to add restrictions to slow the spread of disease,” JHU researchers explain.

How High Is Too High Positivity Rate?

The higher the percent positive is, the more concerning it is.

JHU experts say as a thumb rule one threshold for the percent positive being “too high” is 5%. “For example, the World Health Organization recommended in May that the percent positive remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening. If we are successful in bringing coronavirus transmission under control, this threshold might be lowered over time. To further relax social restrictions and allow very large gatherings or meetings of people traveling from many different areas, for example, we would want a lower threshold,” they explained.

Why Are The Next 3 Weeks Critical For India?

Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology Director Dr Rakesh Mishra opines that the next three weeks are extremely crucial for India and it is absolutely imperative to follow guidelines “very strictly”. With reports of hospitals running out of beds and oxygen and supply of drugs being in short supply, any aberration would be disastrous.

“The next three weeks are very critical for India in terms of the spread of the infection. People should take utmost care and precautions. We have seen this kind of situation in Italy, where many people have lost their lives on the corridors of hospitals due to lack of treatment medicine and oxygen cylinders. Last year, healthcare workers were very effective in handling the situation,” Dr Mishra told news agency ANI.

“In infections like COVID-19, it is quite common that there would be a second wave as the virus mutates and whichever of the mutated variant virus is stronger will spread faster. There have been a lot of new variants that have emerged. More people will be infected with the mutated variant in India, if they don’t adhere to the Covid guidelines,” he added.

Can Vaccination Bring Down Positivity Rate?

Experts say that while the vaccine is a very important tool to defeat the pandemic, people must still remember to follow COVID-19 guidelines as the virus can be spread from even those who have been vaccinated.

“No matter what variant comes, it cannot spread if we stick to COVID-19 guidelines. After a thorough air sampling of the coronavirus, it has been found that the virus can spread through air. It can move up to 20 feet in a closed area. Wearing a mask can keep one 80 to 90 per cent safe. If the other person is also wearing a mask, then one can be 99 per cent safe,” Dr Mishra explained.

ALSO READ: NewsMobile Explainer: All You Need To Know About The ‘Double Mutant’ Variant & The Fresh Surge Of COVID-19 Cases

ALSO READ: NewsMobile Explainer: What Is Leading To False Negative RT-PCR Test Reports & Allied Risk Of Spreading COVID-19

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