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NewsMobile Explainer: Is India’s Second COVID-19 Wave More Severe Than The First?

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The coronavirus surge continues continues unabated as India recorded its highest ever single day spike on Saturday with 2,34,692 new COVID-19 cases and 1,341 deaths being reported in the last 24 hours as per health ministry data.

As per official figures, the total number of cases in the country now stands at 1,45,26,609. There are now 16,79,740 active cases while 1,26,71,220 people have recovered from the disease. The overall death toll has reached 1,75,649. As many as 11,99,37,641 people have been vaccinated so far.

As numbers continue to add up in the tally board and the ‘double mutant’ variant wreaks havoc on lives and livelihoods, we try to analyse if the second wave is more severe than the first.
Key Statistics 
India surpassed Brazil to become the country with the world’s second highest number of confirmed COVID-19, second only to the United States.

During the First Wave, it took 32 days for the number of new cases to shoot up from 18,000 to 80,000.

In the Second Wave, it took merely 17 days for the number of cases to jump from 18,377 to 50,518.

As compared to the Reproduction Rate of 1.09 as on September 3, 2020, the rate in just a matter of seven months, stood at 1.30 as on April 12, 2021.

As of April 16, 2021, more than one in every four confirmed COVID-19 infections globally each day were from India.

Positivity Rate 

The positivity rate acts as an index of the spread of the virus within the community.

WHO considers 5% positivity rate as the threshold for considering the coronavirus pandemic to be under control.

India’s positivity rate shot up from 1.47% on February 13 to 10.7% on April 11.

Incidentally, Delhi’s cumulative positivity rate shot up to 22.22% from 15.92% on Wednesday.

ALSO READ: NewsMobile Explainer: What Is Leading To False Negative RT-PCR Test Reports & Allied Risk Of Spreading COVID-19

Proportion Of Cases From States

As per available data, five states account for 65% of the total number of active cases in the country with Maharashtra alone accounting for 38.09% new cases.

The Health Ministry says that 16 states are displaying an upward trajectory in daily new cases.

Noted economist Prof Shamika Ravi who has been mapping the pandemic trajectory very closely says, “Most states are ramping up testing. Whether it’s adequate depends on test positivity rate (>5% is problematic!).”

Death Toll Highest In 10 States

Of the 1,341 deaths were reported in the last 24 hours as on Saturday morning, 10 states account for 85.83% of the new deaths.

‘Double Mutant’ Variant 

The National Institute of Virology (NIV) shared limited data last week during a meeting with district laboratories in Maharashtra detailing a break-up of 361 genome-sequenced samples that were collected between January and March this year.

India’s ‘double mutant’ coronavirus variant is being blamed for the massive surge in the number of cases.

Doctors however say that for an accurate response at least 1% of COVID-19 samples must be sequenced every week.

ALSO READ: NewsMobile Explainer: All You Need To Know About The ‘Double Mutant’ Variant & The Fresh Surge Of COVID-19 Cases 

Are More Youngsters Getting Infected?

As per Health Ministry data till December last year, 60% of the infections were noticed in people below 45 years of age.

As per Johns Hopkins Medicine, “Though younger people are less likely to be hospitalized because of COVID-19 or to die from it, people in their 20s, 30s and 40s can catch the virus, and some develop severe and lasting symptoms, particularly if they are living with obesity, diabetes or high blood pressure (hypertension).”

CEO of Symbiosis Hospital Dr Vijay Natarajan says the younger age group is getting affected. “The tenth day after their swab test returns positive, we see a drop in oxygen levels. While symptoms like fever and sore throat remain, other symptoms like headache loss of smell and taste and gastrointestinal symptoms occur. In the last wave, we had seen children getting infected, but they were totally asymptomatic. This time, the younger population, especially those above 30 years, are infected and have symptoms,” he explained while speaking to the media.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that people of all age groups continue to be at risk.

“Older people and younger people can be infected by the COVID-19 virus. Older people, and people with pre-existing medical conditions such as asthma, diabetes, and heart disease appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the virus,” WHO says.

Why Are Young Adults Vulnerable? 

WHO says jobs are one reason why young adults are vulnerable to coronavirus infection. Many people in their 20s and 30s work in health care, food and essential services such as public transportation.

“Young people often work in areas at high risk for exposure to the coronavirus, such as bars and restaurants, schools, child care centers and retail shops. College students can be affected by campus outbreaks and spread the coronavirus when they return home.

Since young people are less likely to have severe cases of COVID-19, they may have a false sense of confidence regarding their safety. They may feel that mingling with others in large groups, attending parties, not wearing masks and ignoring community pandemic guidelines will not seriously endanger them,” WHO says.

What Are The New Symptoms?
  • While fever, body ache, loss of taste and smell, chills and breathlessness continue to be classic symptoms of COVID-19, there are three more modified infection symptoms which are being reported during the second wave:
  • Pink Eyes
  • Hearing Impairment
  • Gastrointestinal Symptoms
Is The Infection Spreading Faster Than The First Wave?

NITI Aayog admits that the intensity of the pandemic has increased in the second wave and the infection is indeed spreading faster this time around.

However, the spread of the infection is mostly coming to light from the worst affected states.

 

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