COVID-19: UN body forecasts global recession except in India and China


The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has in a report warned of a global recession due to the effects of a lockdown throughout the world due to the deadly Coronavirus, except in India and China.

In a report titled ‘The COVID-19 Shock to Developing Countries: Towards a ‘whatever it takes’ programme for the two-thirds of the world’s population being left behind’; commodity rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran etc will face a cumulative loss of USD 2-3 trillion in investments in the next two years.

The report also mentions that the recent steps taken by the G-20 to infuse USD 5 trillion will deter the effects of this virus. The report read:

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“This represents an unprecedented response to an unprecedented crisis, which will attenuate the extent of the shock physically, economically and psychologically.

The report said this fiscal stimulus with just USD 1-2 trillion will add two percentage points to the global GDP.

The report also mentions that India and China may duck the recession and stay afloat. It said:

“Even so, the world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of global income in trillions of dollars. This will spell serious trouble for developing countries, with the likely exception of China and the possible exception of India.”

The report also calls for an urgent infusion of USD 2.5 trillion.

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