Indian economy growing steadily despite global headwind: FICCI

FICCI to hold discussions in the US to promote Indo-US Economic Partnership
FICCI to hold discussions in the US to promote Indo-US Economic Partnership

New Delhi: Despite the ongoing global economic headwind, the Indian economy is moving steadily on the growth trajectory, according to the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).

“Despite persistent global headwinds, India’s economy has been able to move on to a steady growth trajectory. The government has completed three years in office and the spate of reforms being undertaken is laying a solid foundation for future,” said Pankaj Patel, President, FICCI.

Analysing the latest estimates released by the Central Statistics Office ( CSO) of the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of the current financial year on Wednesday, Patel attributed the moderation in numbers to the note ban, adding that the effect will gradually be reversed with the completion of remonetisation.

“Even though the GDP growth for 2016-17 is in line with the estimate put out earlier this year; the quarter four numbers do point towards moderation which can be attributed to the ban of high denomination currency notes last year. However, the process of remonetisation is almost complete and growth impulse is gradually gaining momentum,” said Patel.

According to FICCI’s latest Economic Outlook Survey, GDP projected to grow at the rate of 7.4% in 2017-18. At this juncture, when the inflation pressures are largely in control, the chamber suggested that the Reserve Bank of India should look at reviewing the policy rate and urging the banking sector to make the cost of capital more affordable for the industry and consumers alike.

As per the latest estimates, the Indian economy grew at 7.1% in 2016-17 in line with the expansion projected in February, after a 6.1%t growth in January-March quarter, indicating stress of demonetisation.

According to the results of the fourth quarter of 2016-17, the GDP is estimated to grow at 7.1%, registering a year-on-year growth in quarterly GDP of 6.1 percent.

The estimates of quarterly GDP have been compiled using the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Wholesale price Indices ( WPI), with base 2011-12.

GDP at current prices in the year 2016-17 is estimated at Rs. 151.84 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 11.0 percent over the estimates of GDP for the year 2015-16 of Rs.136.82 lakh crore.

According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 7.7%, 1.8 percent and 4.3% respectively, in Q4 of 2016-17. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of 5.7% and 4.7% respectively in Q4 of 2016-17.

The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector has shown a growth rate of 9.0% at current prices. The GVA estimates of this sector have been compiled using the Third Advance Estimates of production of food grains for 2016-17.

The third advance estimates of food grain production was 273.38 million tonnes in 2016-17 which is higher than the second advance estimates of food grain production during 2016-17 of 271.98 million tonnes and final estimates of 251.57 million tonnes during the agricultural year 2015-16.

The ‘mining and quarrying’ sector has shown a growth rate of 1.9% at current prices. As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated from major listed companies at current prices was 1.8 percent.

The growth in the ‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated at 9.3% at current prices. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 70% in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE was 12.4% at current prices during 2016-17.

The quasi corporate and unorganised segment (which includes individual proprietorship and partnerships and khadi and village Industries having a share of around 23% in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing.


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