With ‘relatively robust” growth prospects, the Indian economy is expected to expand by 7.2 % this fiscal but difficulty in passing key structural reforms and large non-performing loans are holding it back, says Paris-based think tank OECD.
However, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) today cut the global growth forecast for this year to 2.9 % citing a “further sharp downturn in emerging market economies and world trade”.
The latest growth estimate for India is same as the forecast made in September by the think tank.
In the current financial year (ending March 2016), India is estimated to grow 7.2 %, followed by 7.3 % in 2016-17 and 7.4 % in 2017-18 period, as per OECD.
“Brazil and Russia have experienced recessions and will not return to positive growth in annual terms until 2017.
“By contrast, growth prospects in India remain relatively robust, with GDP growth expected to remain over 7 % in the coming years, provided further progress is made in implementing structural reforms,” the think tank said in a statement today.
Economic growth of India is projected to remain robust, at around 7.25 % over the projection period, it added.
In its latest Economic Outlook report, OECD said that in India public investment has picked up with faster clearance of key projects while better infrastructure and greater ease of doing business are promoting private investments. More generous benefits and wages for public employees are supporting private consumption.
“Even so, large non-performing loans, high leverage ratios for some companies and difficulty in passing key structural reforms are holding the economy back. The current account deficit is widening as machinery imports increase, but is largely financed by rising foreign direct investment inflows,” the report said.
India’s economic growth slowed to 7 % in the three months ended June compared to 7.5 % expansion recorded in the January-March quarter, as per official estimates.
While cutting the world economic growth estimate to 2.9 % for this year, OECD has projected a gradual strengthening of global growth in 2016 and 2017 to 3.3 % and 3.6 %, respectively.
“But a clear pick-up in activity requires a smooth rebalancing of activity in China and more robust investment in advanced economies,” it added.
As per OECD’s September estimates, global growth was to be 3 % this year and 3.6 % in 2016.
The think tank said China’s growth is expected to slow to 6.8 % this year and continue to decline gradually reaching 6.2 % by 2017 as activity rebalances towards consumption and services.