Chinese inflation eased to a four-month low of 2.0 percent in August, official data showed Thursday, with analysts saying the data could allow leaders to further ease monetary policy in the world’s number-two economy.
The National Bureau of Statistics also said in a statement that over the first eight months of the year the consumer price index — a main gauge of inflation — rose 2.2 percent year on year.
The figures come at a time of concern over China’s economy as the effects of mini-stimulus measures this year to prop up slowing growth have waned and fears of a bust in the property sector intensify.
August’s results compare with an increase of 2.3 percent in July and was also lower than the median estimate of 2.2 percent in a survey of 15 economists by the Wall Street Journal. The government in March set a target of 3.5 percent for the year.
Moderate inflation can be a boon to consumption as it encourages consumers to buy before prices go up, while falling prices encourage shoppers to delay purchases and companies to put off investment, both of which can weigh on growth.
Authorities have since April introduced measures to boost the economy, including tax breaks to small enterprises, targeted infrastructure outlays and incentives to encourage lending in rural areas and to small companies.
Despite the August drop, analysts said the outlook is for higher inflation in the coming months as utility prices rise and depleted pig stocks push up pork prices and overall food costs.
Economist Hua Changchun and colleagues at Nomura said in a report that inflation is expected to remain moderate in September, “leaving room for further policy easing”.
It will then start to go up and “keep rising to an average of 3.0 percent in 2015 on tight labour market conditions, the hog cycle and price liberalisation in the utility sector”, they wrote.
– Trade surplus –
The data came on the heels of other indicators, including on manufacturing activity, showing continued weakness in the economy and fanning speculation that authorities will unveil new measures to boost growth.
The government on Monday said China’s trade surplus surged to a record $49.8 billion in August, even though export growth slowed, as imports saw a surprise fall.
Gross domestic product accelerated to a higher-than-expected 7.5 percent in the second quarter from 7.4 percent in the first three months of the year, which was the worst since a similar 7.4 percent expansion in July-September 2012.
The government in March set its annual GDP growth target for 2014 at about 7.5 percent, the same as last year.
In a speech Wednesday to a World Economic Forum meeting in China, Premier Li Keqiang hailed the government’s management of the economy and seemed satisfied with steps taken so far.
“We have managed to ensure steady growth and improve the quality of the Chinese economy,” he said.
“The measures we have taken are good both for now and for longer-term interests, and will therefore enable us to prevent major fluctuations and make a ‘hard landing’ even less possible.”
Overall food prices drove inflation, according to the NBS data, rising 3.0 percent from August last year, with double-digit increases in costs for fresh fruit and eggs.
Also Thursday, China’s producer price index (PPI) — a measure of costs for goods at the factory gate and a leading indicator of the trend for CPI — worsened to a decline of 1.2 percent in August, the NBS said in a separate statement.
The result compared with a decrease of 0.9 percent in July. The last PPI increase was in January 2012, when it rose 0.7 percent.
Economists Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao at ANZ Bank expressed concern, saying in a note that the “deflation risk is rising” in China.
But not all analysts were as worried. “This is not a major cause for concern since it appears that firms are mostly just passing on lower industrial input costs, as a result of falling commodity prices, rather than slashing their profit margins in response to weak demand,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said of the PPI decline.