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The New Cold War

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After decades of tensions, political and economic distancing, ties between Russia and the rest of western powers have reached a new low. The downing of MH17 allegedly by Ukrainian rebels supported by Russia has sparked outrage worldwide. The country is being seen as an instigator of turmoil and an inhibitor to world peace.

Evidence indicate that the plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile that was launched from an area controlled by Russian-backed separatists inside of Ukraine.

Even as the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine began in February this year, the US warned Russia it would be a “grave mistake” to go into the territory of Crimea. The Kremlin however ordered 150,000 troops to test their combat readiness and armed men seized government buildings in the region. Pro-Russian forces were fed by the former Soviet nation who supported the declaration of Crimea as an independent state.

The referendum which took place in March was denounced as illegal by both the new pro-European leaders in Kiev as well as most of the international community. Months of sanctions later Russia remains isolated but not powerless.

 

India, to be or not to be

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi heading to the US to meet President Barack Obama on the 30th, Modi might have to walk on some tight rope as Obama may try and pressurize India to keep a distance from Moscow which has long been regarded as a good friend of India.

India and Russia have shared great ties even after the collapse of the USSR. Politics, defence, civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism co-operation, space and economics have grown tremendously between the two nations with both countries setting a target for $20 billion in bilateral trade by 2015.

But India’s stance on Russia would be crucial in determining whether Moscow stays in the G20, a grouping of the world’s 20 largest economies that is scheduled to meet in Brisbane, Australia, on November 15-16.

The West suspended Russia from the G8 in March but this has had only a limited impact on Moscow’s economy, and the on-the-ground repercussions of a suspension from the G20 remain unclear.

Before the November G20 summit, India could prove crucial to any UN attempt to censure Russia, even though India is currently not a member of the UN Security Council. According to a Telegraph report a Russian official said, “We’ve seen it before – how India can keep a low profile yet manage to influence decisions at multilateral forums”, “So it’s only to be expected that both sides of the divide over Ukraine will try and lobby India.”

India has so far decided to stay silent on a debate where it would rather not pick sides, though it will oppose any economic sanctions against Russia that are not authorised by the UN.

But evidence from the crash in the coming weeks and months, a US official said, may make it hard for India not to at least distance itself from Russia.

 

US sanctions and Europe

Even as President Barack Obama called the MH17 incident a “wake up call” for Europe he said it was a grave demonstration of how the conflict was “not going to be localised”. The statement came as the US put its third round of economic sanctions on Russia.

The US administration imposed the most serious package of sanctions against Moscow to date. Two Russian banks, Rosneft, a gas producer, another oil company and several defence equipment contractors, were all cut off from important sections of US capital markets. As well as major banks and energy firms, the weapons manufacturer Kalashnikov Concern was added to the list

As it happens, the Netherlands is one of Russia’s largest trading partners and therefore has been among the European nations concerned about the economic impact of harsher measures against Moscow.

The Dutch Prime Minister promised justice and punishment to the perpetrators. But French President François Hollande and British Prime Minister David Cameron threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin with consequences when the EU foreign ministers meet on Tuesday.

The strongest words came from British Prime Minister David Cameron who wrote in the Sunday Times that some of his European counterparts need to get over their reluctance to take strong action against Russia. “If Vladimir Putin does not change his approach to Ukraine then Europe and the West must fundamentally change our approach to Russia,” Cameron wrote. “This is not about military action, plainly. But it is time to make our power, influence and resources count.”

The reluctance comes from Germany and Italy who have strong relations and trade links with Russia. Germany has so far been reluctant to take strong action against Russia for its annexation of Crimea and its arming of rebels in eastern Ukraine. The two countries have strong trading and cultural ties. Germany also gets 36% of its gas from Russia. 

But with the Netherlands loss at 192, it remains most viable that Europe will unite against Russia and take a collective stance.

 

 

Why blame pro-Russian rebels

The initial blame game began with Ukraine accusing Russia of downing the Malaysian airlines flight from Amsterdam to Moscow when it was flying at the height of 33,000 ft. The blame substantiated by boasts by separatists that they had shot down a Ukrainian military plane, which were removed from social media sites after it they realised it was a civilian airliner.

Audio of separatist rebels discussing the downed airliner was also released by Ukraine’s security service.

The weapon used to bring down the plane with 298 innocent lives is thought to be the SA-11 or Buk system. Although the Ukrainian military possesses the system, none of its missiles were in the vicinity and it should be noted that not a single anti-aircraft missile since the start of the conflict was reported to be fired.

However pro-Russia rebels used surface to air missiles leading up to the tragic day to pin down military planes.

In June Antonov AN-26, a transport plane was brought down over nearby Slovyansk. Several Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters were also hit in this period, as was an Ilyushin IL-76 cargo plane near Luhansk – it is about the size of a passenger jet. Forty-nine military personnel were killed when the IL-76 crashed short of the airport.

An Il-76 is much larger than an AN-30 and has four jet engines, more the size of the Boeing 777 that was downed on Thursday. The AN-30 and ILl-6 were shot down by MANPADS, which stands for man-portable air-defence systems, a small missile launcher you carry on your shoulder. It can only fire to an altitude of about 11,500 feet, but MH17 was flying at 33,000 feet. That’s way outside of the range of shoulder-fired MANPADS missiles.

But on July 14, an Antonov AN-26 Ukrainian military transport plane flying over the Eastern region was hit by a missile while flying over eastern Ukraine — at 21,000 feet altitude. That’s far beyond the range of a shoulder-fired system like the MANPADS. Which brings in the possibility of the Buk missile system which has a range of over 50,000ft.

It is also noted that pro-Russian rebels took control of several Ukrainian military depots and bases and stripped them of their weapons. On June 29, rebels raided the Ukrainian army’s A-1402 missile facility near Donetsk. While the Russian website Vosti ran an article the same day titled “Skies of Donetsk will be defended by surface-to-air missile system Buk.”

The article claimed: “The anti-air defence point is one of the divisions of the missile corps and is equipped with motorized “Buk” anti-aircraft missile systems.”

The Buk is in both the Russian and Ukrainian inventories, but the question if the rebels acquired the weapon when they overran a Ukrainian base or were supplied by Russia when answered, will be a game changer.

Reports suggest that Russian experts who have been required to use a system like the Buk which need a crew of four who know what they’re doing unless the rebel operators were “air defence operators” a US defence official stated to a news agency.

Russia has denied that any equipment in service with the Russian armed forces has crossed the border into Ukraine.

In June, the US State Department claimed that three T-64 tanks, several rocket launchers and other military vehicles had crossed the Russian border. Ukraine made similar accusations, saying the weapons had gone to Snezhnoe, a rebel stronghold close to where MH17 came down.

Russia has armed the separatists,” Kerry told a news network. “Russia has supported the separatists. Russia has trained the separatists. Russia continues to refuse to call publicly for the separatists to engage in behaviour that would lend itself to a resolution of this issue.

“And the fact is that only a few weeks ago, a convoy of 150 vehicles of artillery, armoured personnel carriers, multiple rocket launchers, tanks, crossed over from Russia into this area and these items were all turned over to the separatists.”

“The separatists are in control. And it is clear that Russia supports the separatists, supplies the separatists, encourages the separatists, and trains the separatists. And Russia needs to step up and make a difference here.”

 

Russia’s defence

Russia accused Ukraine of the MH17 strike saying the Ukrainian government forces were to blame for ending a truce and resuming a military campaign against the pro-Russian separatists who have risen up in eastern Ukraine.

“This tragedy would not have happened, if there had been peace on that land, or in any case if military operations in south-eastern Ukraine had not been renewed,” he said in televised comments.

“And without doubt the government of the territory on which it happened bears responsibility for this frightening tragedy,” he said

However, Putin has not yet denied the involvement of pro-Russian separatists.

 

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