Saffron wave sweeping UP

New Delhi: With its 80 seats in the Lok Sabha, Uttar Pradesh can tilt the power balance at the Centre, make or unmake prime ministers, and set new trends in politics. India’s next prime minister needs to win this trophy to realise his cherished ambition.

Between 1996 and 1998, UP was saffron but the state slipped out despite a third of its vote share comes from it. Ironically, when it came to power in 1999, its popularity dipped. After almost 20 years, there is a swing in popularity in favour of the saffron party, as the country faces the 2014 General Elections.

According to an India Today pre-poll survey, Narendra Modi has the highest popularity ratings across all regions of Uttar Pradesh (48%). Modi’s popularity is highest in Upper Doab region (58%) and lowest in Ruhelkhand (38%).

Mayawati’s popularity sees a surge only in Bundelkhand (37%) region. Elsewhere her ratings are low in comparison with Modi. Mulayam’s popularity is highest in Lower Doab (31%) and lowest in Avadh (10%). Mulayam’s average popularity is two and half times less than that of Modi.

Rahul Gandhi has very low popularity across all regions of Uttar Pradesh. Modi’s popularity is more than three times that of Rahul.

UP is witnessing a massive upper caste consolidation behind Narendra Modi. 43% of upper castes polled said they would vote for Modi. Congress’ support among upper castes (9%) has halved in comparison with 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

Mayawati still dominates the hearts and minds of Dalits of UP. 46% of Dalits polled said they would vote for BSP.

Biggest story in UP is consolidation of OBC votes behind BJP in UP. 34% of OBC’s said they would vote for BJP in comparison with only 14% who voted for BJP in 2009. BJP is now expected to poll more OBC vote than SP which is traditionally seen as an OBC dominated party. OBC support to Congress (6%) and Mayawati (11%) has come down significantly. Mulayam largely retains his OBC vote-bank (25%). However, OBC support from 2009 is down 3%.

The other big highlight is extreme fragmentation of Muslim vote across UP. Muslim vote is being split three way in UP. Cong 22%, BSP 21%, SP 35%. Despite Muzaffarnagar, SP remains first choice for UP’s Muslims (35%). Congress has lost a third of its support among UP’s Muslims. Despite Modi’s presence, support for BJP among Muslims has gone up in UP but very marginally from 5% to 7%. SP lost out on part of its Muslim vote bank in 2009 (28%) but party has now beaten Congress to emerge as top choice for UP’s Muslims

Most of BJP’s gains in vote share in UP (+9%) are coming at the cost of Congress (-7%). BJP is the only party which has a positive swing in vote share (+9%). Samajwadi Party vote-share is down significantly in comparison with Assembly Elections of 2012 (-6%) but SP’s vote share is same as that of Lok Sabha 2009. Congress is being routed across Uttar Pradesh losing 17 out of its 21 seats. This is the second worst performance of the Congress party in UP. In 1998 Cong scored 0. 5 seats in 1991,1996.

BJP’s seat share (30) is thrice that of its tally in 2009 general elections. If Cong & BSP were to contest together they dislodge Modi’s dominance in UP. Congress & BSP together are projected to bag 39 out of 80 seats in UP.

Biggest loser in case of a Cong-BSP alliance would be SP whose tally will crash to 14 seats from the projected 20 seats. In case of a BSP-Cong alliance, Muslim votes will gravitate significantly from SP towards BSP-Congress. While BJP is gaining under Modi in UP, it is still far away from its 1998 peak of 57 seats and 37% vote share. In current scenario BSP is the biggest threat to Narendra Modi’s juggernaut

In the absence of allies, Modi will need to bag UP to reach PMO. The state is equally important for the anti-Modi camp, to halt the juggernaut. There are six political regions that act like individual states, with their own caste equations. In Awadh and Poorvanchal, the contest is triangular. In western UP, BJP has an upper hand with the support of Jats and upper castes voters, but BSP has the support of Jatavs and Muslims. The contest in these regions are bipolar, between BJP and BSP.

In Poorvanchal, Mulayam’s SP has an upper hand. Here, OBCs, upper castes, Dalits and Muslims are present in large numbers. The OBC-Muslim backing still work for SP, and the upper caste votes going to BJP making Mayawati’s position shaky. Poorvanchal will be shared by BJP and SP.

In Awadh, BJP is placed well. There are some important pockets where Congress, SP and BSP all have a support base, but these islands are not remarkably important in the larger state picture.  

In Bundelkhand, Congress led by Rahul Gandhi has put in a lot of effort but hasn’t been able to reap any gains. The contests here are triangular between BJP, BSP and SP. Dalits have gone back to BSP, the upper castes to the BJP, with nothing much left for Congress.

The voters in this region mainly want to put their weight behind the party that is likely to form a government at the Centre.

The lower Daob region is the home turf of Mulayam Singh. All seats here are contested by him or his family members; so his vote share here is not surprising. BSP is set to be wiped out, the contest is between BJP and SP.

The Rohailkhand region has the largest number of Muslim voters. Every seat here will witness a bipolar contest between Modi and one of the three — Congress, SP, and BSP. It will be tactical voting against Modi. So essentially, the contest across UP is between Modi on one hand and everybody else on the other. Dalits have remained behind Mayawati but a section of the middle class Dalit voters are drifting towards BJP. BJP seems to be well placed to harvest the non-Jatav Dalit and the non-Yadav OBC votes.