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Fast Forward 2020: Important diplomatic events

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As we approach the end of the decade and welcome 2020, the world and India will see certain important events which will continue to dominate policies and outcomes.

Some of the events are truly global while others are localised in nature and will mostly impact only India.

Let us look at some of the events that will define the year 2020.

1. US Presidential elections and other important elections from around the world

The US Presidential election is scheduled to be held sometime in the month of November.

The Republican party will choose the incumbent President Donald Trump as their candidate. However, the process to remove the president is underway in the Senate. It is unlikely that the removal motion will go through. The President’s popularity is still at an all time high. The Republican party will consider these facts.

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The Democrats are yet to announce their candidate. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders appear to be the front runners.

File image- Joe Biden

This election will be closely watched this year along with the proceedings in the US senate.

Elections are also expected in Taiwan in the first week of January. Pro-Chinese elements will be hoping to control the affairs of the island nation.

However, China has been failing constantly in 2019 both on the domestic and foreign fronts.

Other important elections to watch out for, will take place in Myanmar, Israel and Sri Lanka (parliamentary elections) amongst other places.

2. BREXIT negotiations

In 2019, Britain managed to successfully negotiate a deal to leave the European Union grouping.

This deal has to be ratified by the British Parliament after which the negotiations with the European Union will commence. The deadline to ratify the deal by the Parliament is January 31st.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson

However, Britain is not expected to leave the European grouping immediately.

Once the deal is ratified by the Parliament, the negotiations to finalize a deal involving trade, services, free movement of people amongst other issues will start and is expected to conclude by the end of the year.

3. International Conferences

The United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) 75th annual session will commence from the month of September.

This provides an opportunity to the global community to discuss important international issues such as achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s), counter terrorism amongst others.

It also provides an opportunity to the world leaders to meet and discuss, issues of bilateral and multilateral interests.

In November, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will be hosting the COP 26 (Conference of the Parties) conference in Glasgow, United Kingdom.

The 2019 conference held at Madrid proved to be inconclusive. The developed nations refused to undertake any further reduction in their total emissions and also did not commit to clean development finances. The conference in Glasgow assumes importance, as the world eagerly looks forward to the leaders, reaching an agreement and moving forward from the Paris Conference.

In November, the Saudi capital of Riyadh will host the G-20 summit. This is a yet another important multilateral institution that has amongst its members, economic power houses and emerging economies. Important issues related to the revival of global economy, issues related to global taxation system, terrorism and trade will just be some of the main issues that will be discussed.

4. Indian Foreign Policy

Indian foreign policy is expected to continue holding on to its new found assertive nature. There will be new challenges at home, neighbourhood and beyond.

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The 3rd Informal summit between India and China is scheduled to be held in China. The exact schedule is yet to be decided by both the sides.

However, it is widely expected that the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to China to meet the Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The Indo-Japanese annual summit continues to hang in suspense. In 2019, it was scheduled to have been held in Guwahati. However, it got cancelled due to the protests opposing the  Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019. The summit will now be held in 2020.

India will seek to expand its footprints beyond its immediate neighbourhood. An assertive China will continue to challenge India on all fronts.

5. Business related developments

A multitude of trade deals are expected to be signed between the nations. Some of the important ones are-
US-China, US-India- US President Donald Trump has targeted India and China for ‘unfair trade practices’. Negotiations are currently underway between the parties.

British negotiations with EU, India and US- Britain will be under pressure after BREXIT. Various differences have stalled trade negotiations with these nations. For example, differences over immigration rules with India has stalled a trade agreement. With the new government in place in Britain, it is expected that some movement on this front can be expected.

Work on Chabahar port

Chabahar port

The recently concluded India-US 2+2 Strategic dialogue has exempted the Chabahar project from the ambit of sanctions. With this, it is expected that India’s connectivity projects and trade with the Eurasian region and Afghanistan will improve.

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