The Big Fight of Wednesday

New Delhi: The bigwigs of Wednesday’s elections are Sonia Gandhi, L K Advani, Narendra Modi, Farooq Abdullah, Arun Jaitley, Murli Manohar Joshi, Capt. Amarinder Singh and Sriprakash Jaiswal, Sharad Yadav and Uma Bharti.

Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareily): The fourth consecutive contest (where she won with a record margin of 72% votes in 2009), Sonia is seeking re-election. The constituency has been historically a Congress stronghold. This is a constituency represented by Feroz Gandhi, Indira Gandhi, Arun Nehru and Raj Narain. Priyanka Gandhi’s charismatic campaign will make an impact, improving her margins.

The opposing candidates are Ajay Agarwal (BJP), Pravesh Singh (BSP) and Archana Srivastava (AAP).

Narendra Modi (Vadodara): The unstoppable juggernaut who has been crisscrossing the country as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, Modi sells Gujarati pride in a way that every citizen understands. Therefore he is a candidate hard to defeat. However, Modi is contesting the parliamentary elections for the first time and Vadodara is his home turf. Vadodara has over the past couple of decades come to be viewed as a BJP stronghold. Except for a brief interlude of two years (1996-98), the party has clung on to the constituency regularly since 1991. Congress’ Satyajit Sinh Gaekwad emerged triumphant in 1996, but he was defeated by the BJP’s Jayaben Thakkar two years later. Balkrishna Shukla of BJP won the seat by a margin of over 1.36 lakh votes in 2009. BJP prime ministerial candidate making Lok Sabha debut is up against Congress General-Secretary Madhusudan Mistry.

Rajnath Singh (Lucknow): While BJP apparently sounds confident, the worrying factor is the caste. Except BJP, all major parties have put up Brahmin candidates. With veterans like Murli Manohar Joshi and Kalraj Mishra forced to leave their seats and contest from Kanpur and Deoria respectively, the party is facing the charge of promoting Thakurs at the cost of Brahmins. This constituency has sent non-Brahmins to the Lok Sabha only three times in the last 63 years.

Muslims, too, are a major factor in the constituency and their first choice naturally is someone who can defeat BJP. His rival candidates are Nakul Dubey of BSP, Abhishek Mishra of SP and Rita Bahuguna Joshi of Congress.

Murali Manohar Joshi and Sriprakash Jaiswal (Kanpur): Kanpur is up for a contest between local versus outsider. BJP has fielded veteran Murli Manohar Joshi, who, with a tag of an ‘outsider’ is vying for a space in the heart of local electorate against sitting MP and ‘local’ Sriprakash Jaiswal. Joshi, sitting MP from Varanasi, had to shift here after BJP decided to field Modi from Varanasi. However, his candidature from city has not gone down well with some local leaders, who were in the race and nurturing ambitions to contest from here. With 35% Brahmins and an equal share of Muslims among its 15 lakh odd voters and decline in Jaiswal’s margin of victory in the last two outings, BJP cadre is confident that a strong Brahmin candidate such as Joshi can pull off a win.

 

L K Advani (Gandhinagar): The Bheeshma Pitama of Indian politics, L K Advani, has represented the constituency for five times. His win in the constituency is a foregone conclusion, but the pertinent question is by what margin? The only problem BJP poll managers may encounter is to maintain the lead for BJP veteran who had won by a margin of over 1.2 lakh votes in 2009. Kirit Patel (Congress) is his rival candidate.

 

Uma Bharti (Jhansi): A fiery speaker and mass leader in her own right, Bharti is fielded from Jhansi. Bharti remains a hot favourite with the womenfolk, who are clearly impressed with her decision to don saffron and her association with the Ram Janambhoomi movement.  She also enjoys the support of the Lodh caste to which she belongs. But it is Modi’s projection as a strong, decisive leader and an agent of change which is driving the youth (irrespective of their caste affiliation), the upper castes such as Brahmins, Rajputs and Kayasths to the saffron camp. The non-Yadav OBCs are also gravitating towards him because Modi is an OBC, a fact which has been successfully marketed by his camp followers.

 

Arun Jaitley and Captain Amarinder Singh (Amritsar): BJP leader Arun Jaitley faces a formidable rival in Congress’ Amarinder Singh in his maiden bid to enter the Lok Sabha. The fight is not going to be easy at all. While Jaitley is a successful advocate and an effective orator, Singh is a formidable opponent who has a large following both among Sikh and Hindu voters.

 
Another advantage for Singh is that despite being in Congress, he had openly opposed the army operation at the Golden Temple in 1984 and quit his Lok Sabha seat in protest. Congress stalwart R L Bhatia had won Amritsar a record six times, but Amritsar has been voting for BJP since 2004 when the party fielded cricketer-turned politician Navjot Singh Sidhu.

Sharad Yadav (Madhepura): Janata Dal-United president Sharad Yadav is facing a tough fight from controversial former MP Pappu Yadav of RJD in this constituency. Sharad Yadav, 66, is seeking re-election with full support of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in this Yadav dominated constituency. Both Yadavs are relying on caste factor as well as reportedly on money and muscle power to settle scores. Madhepura’s significance also lies in the fact that the winner will send across a strong political message – either that the Yadavs support the social justice that Lalu Prasad propagates, or the `development’ plank which Sharad Yadav and Nitish Kumar are promoting.
 

Farooq Abdullah (Srinagar): The 78-year-old National Conference patriarch and three times chief minister, Farooq Abdullah, is seeking re-election from this Lok Sabha seat. He has never lost an election so far. Srinagar has been a strong bastion of NC and the Abdullahs. The constituency has been represented in the past by Abdullah’s mother, Begum Akbar Jahan. His son and chief minister, Omar Abdullah has represented Srinagar in the Lok Sabha thrice.

There are 14 candidates in fray in this Lok Sabha seat, but the main contest is going to be between Farooq Abdullah and Tariq Hamid Karra of the regional Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).